AGP Executive Report

Digital Tax: A 20% VAT on qualifying cross-border digital services takes effect today. The GRA says many providers already collect the tax, so consumers should not face an additional charge where it is already included. Cocoa Finance: Cocoa Capital has launched a GH¢16.3 billion programme on the Ghana Stock Exchange to finance cocoa purchases for the 2026/27 season, shifting funding towards domestic markets. Economic Outlook: The IMF raised its 2026 growth forecast for sub-Saharan Africa to 4.5%, but warned that falling aid and rising inflation leave economies exposed to fresh shocks. Energy: Ghana’s crude oil output has risen about 30% this year after years of decline. Petrol and diesel prices are expected to edge down from October 16, while LPG could rise by as much as 18.5%. Mining and Environment: GoldBod is committing GH¢35 million to restore 50 hectares of the Tano Nimri Forest Reserve damaged by illegal mining. The EPA has also ordered unapproved reclamation and restoration work to stop immediately. Jobs: Employers are urging the government to assess major policies for their effects on jobs and businesses before implementation.

Fuel Prices: COMAC expects petrol and diesel prices to fall from October 16, offering motorists some relief. Digital Finance: Ghana’s cybercrime crackdown arrested 19 people and identified 89 scam victims who lost an estimated US$8.3 million; 117 suspected trafficking victims were also found. Tax: GRA says its digital VAT system does not add a new 20% charge: the existing rate applies to foreign digital services, and customers will not be charged twice where tax is already included. Pharmaceuticals: The government has extended applications for the planned Legon Pharmaceutical Innovation Park to October 31. The 2,000-acre project aims to create 30,000 jobs and expand local medicine production. Energy: Ghana plans to stop buying liquid fuels for power generation next year, after cutting purchases from eight cargoes to two; the shift to gas saved about US$500 million in one year. Cocoa: COCOBOD raised GH¢3.396 billion in domestic financing for cocoa purchases, while the government says farmers will receive at least 70% of the world-market price. Economic Outlook: The IMF raised Ghana’s 2026 growth forecast to 5.7%, and Moody’s upgraded the country’s credit rating to B3 with a stable outlook. Banking: Ghana’s banking assets have reached GH¢500.2 billion, with all 23 banks meeting capital requirements.

Investment & Industry: Ghana is courting Chinese firm Hanway with a proposed US$5bn plan to revive the Pwalugu tomato factory. The project could process 500 tonnes and create about 3,100 jobs, if rehabilitation and irrigation work secure reliable supplies. Growth & Credit: The IMF forecasts 5.7% growth for Ghana in 2026 and 4.8% inflation. Moody’s upgraded the country to B3 with a stable outlook. Gold & Markets: GoldBod CEO Sammy Gyamfi says proceeds from gold exports are sold to the Bank of Ghana and commercial banks to fund operations. Ghana is also urging mining partners to invest in local processing and technology transfer. The cedi was selling at about GH¢12.30 at forex bureaux on Wednesday. Business Costs: From October 16, petrol and diesel prices are expected to fall, while LPG could rise by as much as 18.5%; NPA minimum prices are GH¢16.09 for petrol and GH¢17.09 for diesel. Banks are to begin collecting a 20% tax on qualifying foreign digital services from October 15. Enterprise: The Ghana Enterprises Agency and Mastercard Foundation equipped 242 young agribusiness graduates with startup kits. MTN Ghana also announced a US$1.1bn network expansion.

Gold and Forex: GoldBod chief Sammy Gyamfi told Parliament the board does not trade currencies; it sells foreign exchange generated through gold operations. He said it is targeting more than US$10.8 billion in forex earnings this year. Growth Outlook: The IMF expects Ghana’s economy to grow 5.2% in 2026 and 5.7% in 2027, with inflation falling to 4.8% this year. Finance Minister Cassiel Ato Forson is leading Ghana’s delegation to IMF–World Bank meetings as the government prepares its 2027 budget and “New Economy” agenda. Credit and Banking: Moody’s upgraded Ghana’s rating to B3 with a stable outlook, citing improved financing conditions and lower borrowing costs. Bank assets reached GH¢500.2 billion, while lending rates have fallen to a 25-year low. Cocoa: A new law guarantees farmers at least 70% of the world market price; Mahama says Ghana is currently paying 71.18%.

Economic Outlook: The IMF raised Ghana’s 2026 growth forecast to 5.7%, above the government’s 4.8% target, and cut its year-end inflation projection to 4.8%. Cedi and Forex: The dollar sold for GH¢12.30 at forex bureaus on Tuesday, while the Bank of Ghana interbank selling rate was GH¢11.78. GoldBod says it has injected US$255 million into banks to help meet dollar demand. Banking: Sector assets climbed 20.47% to GH¢500.2 billion by August, and all 23 banks meet capital requirements, according to the BoG. SME Growth: Eighty-eight entrepreneurs graduated from MTN’s six-month Mini MBA, aimed at helping small businesses build skills and scale. Trade and Industry: GEXPO 2026 is set to connect 500 Ghanaian businesses with global buyers and support the government’s export drive.

Public-Sector Savings: DVLA says it renegotiated its roadworthiness contract from a projected US$155.4 million over three years to GH¢2 million, estimating annual savings of about US$50 million. It has also acquired machines to print eligible driving licences on the spot. Banking and Credit: Bank of Ghana figures show sector assets rose 20.47% to GH¢500.2 billion by August, with all 23 banks meeting capital requirements. The central bank is proposing rules requiring lenders to assess borrowers’ income and cash flow, not rely on collateral alone, as private-sector credit expands. Trade and Transport: Ghana Railway Development Authority is moving containers to inland terminals, including Kumasi Unity Terminal, to ease congestion at Tema Port; it currently handles about 220 containers a day. Local Industry: Bechem’s poultry-processing factory is 50% complete and expected to open by early 2027. The government says domestic poultry production has risen from 4.6% to 22%, with the project intended to create jobs and support local supply. Manufacturing: Nestlé Ghana has expanded evaporated-milk production capacity at its Tema plant, adding to investment in local processing.

Currency: The cedi sold at GH¢12.30 per dollar at forex bureaus on Monday, against GH¢11.80 on the Bank of Ghana interbank market, keeping import costs in focus. Banking: Sector assets rose 20.47% to GH¢500.2bn in August, and all 23 banks met capital rules. Non-performing loans fell to 15.66%, but remain above the 10% prudential limit. Government finance: Treasury bill sales raised GH¢4.41bn, exceeding the GH¢2.88bn target as yields declined. Investment drive: Finance Minister Cassiel Ato Forson is leading Ghana’s delegation to IMF and World Bank meetings in Bangkok to pursue funding and investment for industrialisation, value addition and jobs. Manufacturing: Nestlé Ghana’s Tema expansion nearly doubles evaporated milk capacity to about 30,000 tonnes a year. Housing: Afro-Arab Properties has pledged support for the government’s affordable-housing drive, with a long-term vision of 200,000 homes nationwide by 2050.

Banking and Regulation: Ghana’s banking assets reached GH¢500.2bn, and all 23 banks met capital requirements. The Bank of Ghana is preparing rules for AI use and reviewing banks’ cybersecurity, while a new credit-risk directive takes effect in July 2027. Government Finance: Treasury-bill bids hit GH¢5.06bn, about 76% above target; accepted bids totalled GH¢4.4bn as yields softened, potentially lowering domestic borrowing costs. Agribusiness: President Mahama says the Bechem poultry and meat-processing factory is 50% complete, with commissioning planned for early 2027. The project is expected to create a market for local poultry farmers and jobs along the value chain. Business and Investment: Chinese-backed lithium investment is reshaping Africa’s battery-minerals sector, with Ghana’s Ewoyaa project among the developments attracting attention as countries push for local processing. Small Businesses: SSNIT plans an African Market at Labadi before Christmas to give displaced beachfront traders a place to resume business.

Banking Recovery: All 23 banks now meet Bank of Ghana capital rules, while sector assets rose 20.47% to GH¢500.2bn by August and non-performing loans fell. Financial Regulation: The BoG is drafting rules for AI use in finance and plans cybersecurity checks, citing risks to data, customers and operations. Investment Drive: Ghana has launched its first Invest Ghana Summit, set for November, to attract capital into manufacturing, agribusiness and processing and shift exports toward value-added goods. Agriculture: An AfDB grant of $18.8m will support rice production as Ghana targets self-sufficiency by 2028; government says its poultry initiative has lifted local production from 4.6% to 22% in a year. Housing Finance: Government plans to mobilise long-term cedi funding to widen access to affordable housing.

Banking and Digital Finance: Ghana’s banking assets rose 20.5% year-on-year to GH¢500.2bn in August, while bad loans fell. The Bank of Ghana is also drafting rules for AI use in financial services, citing risks to data, cybersecurity and consumers. BRICS Strategy: Ghana plans to seek partner-country status to widen trade and investment links, while the Foreign Affairs Minister says the move will not weaken ties with Western partners. Agriculture: An AfDB grant of $18.8m will support rice production as Ghana targets self-sufficiency by 2028. Mahama also inspected a poultry-processing plant in Bechem, about halfway built, as local poultry production reaches 22%. Prices and Industry: Takoradi residents are calling for action on rising food costs, including better storage and transport. Separately, Nestlé has expanded production capacity at its Tema factory, and the government plans long-term cedi financing to support affordable housing.

Agriculture: Ghana has secured an AfDB grant of $18.8 million to lift rice yields, support more than 20,000 farmers and help cut a roughly $500 million annual import bill, with self-sufficiency targeted by 2028. Housing Finance: Government plans to mobilise long-term cedi funding for affordable homes, while Prudential Bank has received a GH¢1.13 billion investment to strengthen its capital position. Industry & Investment: Nestlé’s expanded Tema production line adds to fresh manufacturing investment as GIPA launches the Invest Ghana Summit alongside the Ghana Club 100 Awards to attract investors. Cocoa & Prices: COCOBOD has raised about $288 million to finance cocoa purchases amid cash-flow pressure; September inflation rose to 5.2%, pushed up by rent, tomatoes and services. Trade: Cabinet has approved Ghana’s bid to join BRICS as the government seeks to broaden international economic partnerships.

Banking: Prudential Bank has received regulatory approval for a GH¢1.13 billion capital investment, giving it more room to lend to businesses and fund technology upgrades. Housing Finance: Government plans to mobilise long-term cedi funding through banks, pension funds and insurers to support affordable homes, rentals and rent-to-own options. Public Finance: Finance Minister Ato Forson called for tighter controls and recovery of public funds, warning that waste undermines essential services and infrastructure. Trade: A new UK-Ghana Trade Resource Centre will help firms find export opportunities and partners; bilateral trade reached about £1.6 billion in the year to March 2026. Industry: Nestlé Ghana has expanded evaporated-milk production at its Tema factory, with President Mahama urging more industries to extend operations. Agriculture: The AfDB has granted Ghana $18.8 million to develop rice production and processing, supporting a 2028 self-sufficiency target and efforts to reduce a $500 million annual import bill. Global Partnerships: Cabinet has approved Ghana’s application to join BRICS, which the government says could diversify trade and investment ties while complementing existing partnerships.

Investment & Finance: Deputy Finance Minister Thomas Ampem Nyarko says Ghana is targeting investment-grade status to regain access to international capital, with the current S&P rating at B- with a stable outlook. He says the priority is making long-term funding more available and affordable. Trade: President Mahama says exports to India have risen from about US$3 billion to nearly US$7 billion, with talks also focused on investment in rail and pharmaceuticals. Markets: The cedi sold at GHS12.30 at forex bureaus and GHS11.79 on the BoG interbank market on October 9. September inflation rose to 5.2% from 5.0% in August. BoG says private-sector credit grew 35.5% year-on-year in August as lending rates fell to 15.9%, and has urged banks to strengthen risk controls amid elevated non-performing loans. Industry & Energy: Tema Oil Refinery reported a GH¢1.24 billion profit for 2025 after restarting refining. Energy Minister John Jinapor says 2027 priorities include installing 3,000 transformers and demanding measurable results from sector agencies. Mining: Ghana is expected to replace its draft mining bill with a revised version restoring a maximum 20-year lease term, addressing industry concerns over proposed changes.

Industrial Growth: President Mahama commissioned Nestlé Ghana’s upgraded Tema production line, which increases evaporated milk capacity and highlights local manufacturing’s role in job creation. Agriculture & Cocoa: An AfDB grant of $18.8 million will support rice production, processing and storage as Ghana targets self-sufficiency by 2028. COCOBOD raised GH¢3.39 billion in its first cocoa notes offer and secured $288 million in borrowing to finance farmer purchases. Prices & Credit: Inflation rose to 5.2% in September, driven partly by rent and food costs. Banks warn they may halt new loans to public-sector workers if delays in remitting salary deductions continue. Local Investment: GIPA’s CEO says foreign capital does not entitle investors to operate in informal retail, where the law reserves the market for Ghanaians. He also points to Engineers and Planners as a model for building Ghanaian-owned mining companies.

Rice Production: Ghana will invest $18.8 million in a new AfDB-backed project to develop 3,200 hectares, support more than 20,000 farmers and reduce rice imports as it targets self-sufficiency by 2028. Housing Finance: President Mahama has directed GH¢1 billion for a revolving National Housing Fund in the 2027 Budget, part of a proposed GH¢3 billion pool to widen access to affordable housing finance. Banking: Private-sector credit grew 35.5% in August as average lending rates fell to 15.9%; the Bank of Ghana is urging banks to tighten risk controls amid the rapid expansion. Trade and Investment: Cabinet has approved Ghana’s bid to join BRICS, while Accra courts Indian investment and reports exports to India nearing US$7 billion. Investment Climate: An advisory firm says bureaucratic delays are keeping potential projects from becoming actual investment, despite Ghana’s strong prospects in sectors including agribusiness, energy and logistics. Prices: Inflation edged up for a second month, reaching 5.2% in September from 5.0% in August.

Housing Finance: Mahama has earmarked GH¢1bn in the 2027 Budget for a revolving National Housing Fund and proposed loans to help owners complete unfinished homes. Trade & Investment: Cabinet has approved Ghana’s bid to join BRICS, with India expressing support. Mahama says exports to India have risen to nearly US$7bn, and the two countries have agreed to deepen agricultural research and technology cooperation. Economic Outlook: September inflation rose to 5.2% from 5.0%, while the World Bank maintained its 2026 growth forecast at 4.8%. Fuel imports have also cut Ghana’s trade surplus by 70%. Business Cash Flow: Free SHS food suppliers gave government two weeks to engage over about GH¢250m in unpaid invoices, saying the delays are straining their finances. Financial Safety: The Bank of Ghana warned against digital fraud and Ponzi schemes, urging customers to protect their PINs and verify investment offers.